Trend Pullback
Join an established trend after a pause, using a nearby structural level for a small, well-defined stop.
Why it can work: A trend that pauses and resumes offers a defined invalidation level close to entry, which is what produces a favourable reward-to-risk without predicting anything.
Entry rules
- Trend filter: EMA(50) above EMA(200) for longs, below for shorts, on the trading timeframe.
- Strength filter: ADX(14) above 20 on the trading timeframe.
- Pullback zone: Price trades to within 0.25 × ATR(14) of EMA(20), or into a prior broken level now acting as support/resistance.
- Structure intact: The most recent higher low (uptrend) or lower high (downtrend) has not been broken.
- Trigger: A completed candle closes back through EMA(20) in the trend direction.
Stops and targets
- Stop: 1.5 × ATR(14) beyond the pullback extreme.
- First target: The prior swing extreme in the trend direction.
- Runner: Trail below each new higher low (or above each lower high) after the first target.
- Minimum ratio: Skip if reward-to-risk to the first target is below 1.5 after costs.
Invalidation
A completed close beyond the pullback extreme, or a break of the most recent higher low / lower high, before the trigger fires.
Expiry
8 candles after price first enters the pullback zone.
Indicators used and why
| Indicator | Settings | Role |
|---|---|---|
| EMA | 20 / 50 / 200 | Direction and pullback zone |
| ADX / DMI | 14 | Trend strength filter |
| ATR | 14 | Stop distance and zone tolerance |
Skip this setup when
- · ADX(14) below 20 — pullbacks fail repeatedly in ranges.
- · A high-impact event on either currency falls before the first target could be reached.
- · Reward-to-risk to the first target is below 1.5 after costs.
- · The pullback has already broken the last higher low / lower high.